I Was for Obama before I Was Against HimLike TV weathermen, pundits are usually very good at describing what is going on right now, but not to be relied upon for much else. Bob Novak's piece today on
Obama Republicans is a perfect example of the "if the election were held today, X would happen" manufactured non-information.
Between today and the general election lies the sea. The Internet has become such an everyday thing that we fail to reflect on its unique impact. The volume of information, and the speed at which it is delivered, are vastly greater than ever before. To understand this, let's look at another context.
Not so long ago, if you were a movie geek, you might have to wait 4-8 weeks for a movie-geek magazine to print a rumor about something that happened on the set of a particular picture. People who lived in a large enough city to get daily delivery of
Variety were alpha-geeks, but even they were subject to the whims of the editors. Today, tens of thousands of blogs, many dedicated to a single movie, scour the all-seeing web for the tiniest tidbits to broadcast instantly to everyone from the hipsters in Brooklyn to pimple-riddled kids in Moline, Illinois.
And yet, what do I know about what's going on with the latest Joss Whedon production?
Absolutely nothing. Don't get me wrong: I think Joss Whedon is brilliant, but I'll wait for the movie to come out, then I'll get a little interested, but probably end up getting it from Netflix since I've got about 19,342.65 things contending for my attention. The Internet has contracted what used to be a relatively long and slow supply chain into virtually nothing--but it has not changed the fact that 99.99% of people are not interested in 99.99% of the information available.
Six months ago, I thought Obama was an interesting, vaguely heroic American archetype in the Teddy/JFK/Reagan mold, and contemplated the thought of his possible election with a placidity that did not apply to Hillary, Kerry, or Gore. I no longer do, but I am also an admitted extreme politigeek, and consume more news in a day than most people do in a month. I fell out of love with Obama long before he lost his inner monologue about clingy Pennsylvanian rednecks, on the basis of relatively pure substance, or "the issues," as reporters like to call things they don't think people pay enough attention to.
Elections are funny things, and can be redefined by small slips--c.f. Bosnia for Hillary, bitter and glingy rednecks for Obama--so predicting a McCain blowout now is risky. But if the race were to unfold in a relatively straighforward matter, which would be the ultimate in unexpected events, that's the scenario I'd bet on.