Clinton's victory in Nevada reinforces the split between the Hispanic and black wings of the Democratic party that I mentioned last week.
For as long as I've been paying attention--which would be about 1988 anyway--the Democrats have, with a few exceptions, been the masters of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Clinton's victory in 1992 was real, but over-reaching (especially by the current candidate) led to the 1994 Contract with America, which forced Clinton to chart a course ninety degrees to the right of where he started. The 1996 government shutdown put an end to Gingrich's insurgency, but it would still be ten years before his spoiled children finally defaulted on the mortgage and had to turn the house back to the Democracts. Impeachment might have been a mess, but considering that two years later the GOP was in control of the White House and Congress, it's a stretch to call it a major failure for the Republicans. Gore botched 2000 by losing his home state, and Kerry just botched the whole thing. Since winning congress back in '06, the Democrats have passed every bill Bush has asked them to, and now have a lower approval rating than he does.
With Hillary, I feel like they just may be about to do it again.
The conventional wisdom is that after eight years of Bush and his cabal of cowboy-booted, pork-barreling Texan buddies, the country is just waiting to a vote a Democrat into office. The Iraq war is still going badly enough that everyone remembers what a !@#$&*% it was, but well enough that people just might feel OK voting a candy-ass liberal into office. A tipsy economy would at the moment also seem to favor the people who emote their concern for the working class most shamelessly. Anyway, the conventional wisdom is precisely that because it's obvious, and to be sure, it's also often right.
There are, as Donald Rumsfeld liked to call them, unknown unknowns in the event that Obama wins the nomination. He is very black, and very liberal, and very inexperienced, none of which have been strong positives in past races. But he sparks something in people far to the right of him--a grudging admiration, a sense of genuine engagement with big ideas, a hope that we might be ready to put at least some of the partiskan mudwrestling that started in the early 90s behind us. Imagining Mitt, John, or Rudy against Obama fills me with a sense of overwhelming dread at how long it might take to undo the damage of fighting and losing a battle of grey clouds against the sunshine.
But Hillary, dear, divisive Hillary! She is as predictable and conventional as Obama is sui generis, and if Obama's optimism is contagious enough to keep dispirited GOP voters at home, Hillary's history virtually guarantees high turnout in all of Karl Rove's favorite zip codes. Giuliani could divorce wife #3 and announce that he's experimenting with the gay lifestyle and the evangelicals would still show up to vote against Hillary. So by all means, if you are voting on Super Tuesday, please be sure to vote for her.
