Dogs that Didn't Bark

On the whole I feel pretty good about my predictions. To recap:

1. Obama Wins: On the 22nd I said McCain had run a 45% campaign, which probably would have made me a winner on The Price Is Right.

2. The Black Vote Stuns, the Youth Vote Sucks: I score this one as a push. Both sucked and stunned simultaneously. First, total turnout was only incrementally higher than in 2004. For a long time liberal observers have said, "but what if these groups turn out like senior citizens in Nebraska?" Put simply, if they didn't show up for Obama, then I think we can close the book on that question for good, or at least a decade or two.

This is not to say however that these groups didn't matter immensely. Obama dramatically increased the Democrats' share of the 18-29 vote, and took the black vote to levels worthy of another Hussein. These may well have provided a critical margin of victory. What that means in the longer term is less clear. Much as 2004 probably defined the high-water mark for the evangelical vote, 2008 will likely be the crest of these other two.

3. Ohio and Florida Stay Red: Why yes, I am enjoying the crow, thanks for asking. #2 may well explain why.

4. Pennsylvania Stays Blue: Easy money.

5. New Hampshire Turns True Blue: Cow Hampshire is solidly trending towards becoming a one-party state just like its neighbors. There are still enough Republicans in state government to produce another governor or senator, but it will be as much by dumb luck as anything. I see an income tax in their future...

6. Senate races: The counting is still going on, but I guessed:

• Democrats pick up AK, NH, NM, OR and VA: Ted Convicted Stevens may still eke out a win, but I was 4-for-5 on the rest.
• Republicans hold GA, KY, LA, MN, MS, and NC: 4-for-6 so far, and it will be 5 if Franken fails to win the recount in Minnesota.