Friday, May 02, 2008
Sea Change in Britain?
Early returns now suggest that the infamous mayor of London, "Red Ken" Livingstone, is set to be replaced by Conservative Boris Johnson. I'm reminded of 1992, when Rudy Giuliani defeated a reeling David Dinkins to become the first Republican mayor of NYC in as long as anyone could recall. In the same year that Bill Clinton completed the federal trifecta for the Democrats, Giuliani's stunning victory was a more accurate indicator of where the country as a whole was headed in the years to come.
One of the most remarkable shifts to take place in politics in my lifetime has been the near-disappearance of crime as a key domestic issue. In the mid-80s, I remember going to see a horse show at Madison Square Garden; as we approached Times Square, my father told us to roll up the windows and lock the doors, and we heard two gunshots on the way back out. The murder rate peaked at over six a day. When Giuliani was elected, gunpoint muggings were happening in midtown Manhattan in broad daylight and reasonable people wondered whether New York City was governable. "White yuppies buying real estate in Harlem" would have made a good headline for an entry in The World's Most Dangerous Places travel guide.
Today, violent crime remains, but it is largely a silent problem that afflicts only the poorest and blackest of us. So long as you don't live in Indian Country, you have little to fear, even in many of the the largest and formerly most violent cities. When a pretty white girl from a good family gets murdered, it's news for weeks or months, because it doesn't happen nearly so often as it used to. For the middle class and above, violent crime has become akin to the genocide in Darfur, an awful thing that we really ought to do something about, but it's something that happens to other people.
This goes a long way to explaining why shysters and demagogues like Al Sharpton are permitted to get away with being spokesmen for "their community." If you're White America and you're in charge, why bother taking on Revvum Al when you can pay him off? It's not like kids are getting shot on the school bus in Wellesley.
Ah, but in Britain, this is all completely backwards. It is true that we have more gun crime and murder here, but it is concentrated in some very narrow and sad places. The vast majority of the country is a practical paradise, the worst public disorder being a few loudmouths bobbing and weaving on the green line after a Sox game. Across Britain, ordinary upper-middle class people find themselves surrounded daily by public drunkenness and thuggery that would be surprising on West Broadway after the St. Patrick's Day parade; muggings are everyday occurrences that the police respond to by telling the victim to "be more careful next time." This is exactly the sense of crumbling of the most basic foundations of civilized society (freedom from random violence) that led to movies like "Falling Down" in the early 90s.
So, perhaps we are seeing the beginning of a similar change in the UK. The assumption that Europe would keep progressing leftward is held as apocalyptically by the American Right as it is held hopefully by the Left. With Berlusconi's victory in Italy earlier this month, we have center-right governments in power in the majority of the EU. Something tells me David Cameron will make it four in the UK before long. ¶ 11:53 AM
Early returns now suggest that the infamous mayor of London, "Red Ken" Livingstone, is set to be replaced by Conservative Boris Johnson. I'm reminded of 1992, when Rudy Giuliani defeated a reeling David Dinkins to become the first Republican mayor of NYC in as long as anyone could recall. In the same year that Bill Clinton completed the federal trifecta for the Democrats, Giuliani's stunning victory was a more accurate indicator of where the country as a whole was headed in the years to come.
One of the most remarkable shifts to take place in politics in my lifetime has been the near-disappearance of crime as a key domestic issue. In the mid-80s, I remember going to see a horse show at Madison Square Garden; as we approached Times Square, my father told us to roll up the windows and lock the doors, and we heard two gunshots on the way back out. The murder rate peaked at over six a day. When Giuliani was elected, gunpoint muggings were happening in midtown Manhattan in broad daylight and reasonable people wondered whether New York City was governable. "White yuppies buying real estate in Harlem" would have made a good headline for an entry in The World's Most Dangerous Places travel guide.
Today, violent crime remains, but it is largely a silent problem that afflicts only the poorest and blackest of us. So long as you don't live in Indian Country, you have little to fear, even in many of the the largest and formerly most violent cities. When a pretty white girl from a good family gets murdered, it's news for weeks or months, because it doesn't happen nearly so often as it used to. For the middle class and above, violent crime has become akin to the genocide in Darfur, an awful thing that we really ought to do something about, but it's something that happens to other people.
This goes a long way to explaining why shysters and demagogues like Al Sharpton are permitted to get away with being spokesmen for "their community." If you're White America and you're in charge, why bother taking on Revvum Al when you can pay him off? It's not like kids are getting shot on the school bus in Wellesley.
Ah, but in Britain, this is all completely backwards. It is true that we have more gun crime and murder here, but it is concentrated in some very narrow and sad places. The vast majority of the country is a practical paradise, the worst public disorder being a few loudmouths bobbing and weaving on the green line after a Sox game. Across Britain, ordinary upper-middle class people find themselves surrounded daily by public drunkenness and thuggery that would be surprising on West Broadway after the St. Patrick's Day parade; muggings are everyday occurrences that the police respond to by telling the victim to "be more careful next time." This is exactly the sense of crumbling of the most basic foundations of civilized society (freedom from random violence) that led to movies like "Falling Down" in the early 90s.
So, perhaps we are seeing the beginning of a similar change in the UK. The assumption that Europe would keep progressing leftward is held as apocalyptically by the American Right as it is held hopefully by the Left. With Berlusconi's victory in Italy earlier this month, we have center-right governments in power in the majority of the EU. Something tells me David Cameron will make it four in the UK before long. ¶ 11:53 AM
