Tuesday, March 04, 2008
Nomentum
What if the whole country voted in one giant Super Tuesday primary? Would the results have been any different than what we've seen so far in the Democratic primary? The numbers suggest not.
Ohio and Texas, much as New York and California before them, voted according to their demographic composition. If the past month of debates, spinning, and ad buys had any effect on voters, it's not really that obvious from the returns. It's a fair rule in business that anything you can't measure does not for all practical purposes exist. "Momentum" is something that pundits and consultants can conjure all they want, but it gets back to the old saying that when the map and the territory don't agree, trust the territory.
Except that in the case of the Democratic primary, "momentum" does in a sense get to vote, at least insofar as it now appears likely that the final nomination will be decided by pregnant chads, er---superdelegates--whose votes may be driven by whatever catches their fancy. And with HRC almost certainly set for another big win in Pennsylvania, the odds of hounding her out of the race early are declining rapidly towards zero. Her case--that if Obama can't beat her in swing states now, he won't beat John McCain in the fall either--gains strength with each unexpected victory.
Right now it is hard to see how this can end amicably. I couldn't be more delighted. ¶ 9:07 PM
What if the whole country voted in one giant Super Tuesday primary? Would the results have been any different than what we've seen so far in the Democratic primary? The numbers suggest not.
Ohio and Texas, much as New York and California before them, voted according to their demographic composition. If the past month of debates, spinning, and ad buys had any effect on voters, it's not really that obvious from the returns. It's a fair rule in business that anything you can't measure does not for all practical purposes exist. "Momentum" is something that pundits and consultants can conjure all they want, but it gets back to the old saying that when the map and the territory don't agree, trust the territory.
Except that in the case of the Democratic primary, "momentum" does in a sense get to vote, at least insofar as it now appears likely that the final nomination will be decided by pregnant chads, er---superdelegates--whose votes may be driven by whatever catches their fancy. And with HRC almost certainly set for another big win in Pennsylvania, the odds of hounding her out of the race early are declining rapidly towards zero. Her case--that if Obama can't beat her in swing states now, he won't beat John McCain in the fall either--gains strength with each unexpected victory.
Right now it is hard to see how this can end amicably. I couldn't be more delighted. ¶ 9:07 PM
