Caution: Door Swings Open Without WarningOf course Deval Patrick is going to
say he wouldn't leave the Commonwealth for DC if Obama wins. Things look bleak for Hope Jr. at this moment, but a lot can change in a year. If Obama loses in the fall, then Obama beta still has two years to get his governorship back on track and position himself as a contender for 2012 or 2016. But if he said "I'll be outta here" today, then he's virtually ensuring himself a lame-duck administration and contested primary in 2010.
But if Obama wins, Patrick will leave a contrail behind him on his way out of the state. No matter how an Obama administration plays out--Carter, Clinton, or FDR--it's unlikely his immediate successor will be a liberal black Democrat. There's at least 5 cabinet offices Patrick could take in a first term, and that lets him Romney the tab for his mess onto Tim Murray, who will last about as long as an armadillo on a Texas interstate.