Monday, February 11, 2008
As Goes Maine?
I haven't, and likely won't, have the time to analyze the Maine caucus returns until well after something more au courant comes along to tickle our drosophila-size attention spans. But, I do have the time to conjecture wildly.
A quick perusal of the results by town showed exactly what I would expect. Southern reaches of the state, especially the Boston suburbs of York Beach, Kennebunkport, and the crunchy metropolis of Portland, went hard for Obama. These places have more culturally in common with Wellesley and Oak Bluffs than with Paris or Gray, which could just as soon be in Tennessee, and I say that as a compliment. FWIW, Paris went for Obama 6-5, Gray broke even at 8-8, and York broke hard at 32-17. Maybe these are eccentric data points, but they are real nonetheless, and caucuses are famed for skewed results compared to the general election, where voters do not spend hours in a room being hemmed and hawed by each side.
My belief remains that Obama faces a very steep hurdle connecting with lower- and middle-class whites, who seem far more interested in the dull to-do list Hillary unrolls on demand, than the soaring but nebulous sentiments offered by Obama. This in a way mirrors Obama's enduring popularity among many upper-tier Republicans, who sour rapidly on him as the blue-sky appeals turn into concrete policy recommendations. This is a bad omen for an Obama candidacy, which looks increasingly likely, as (and I repeat myself) McCain is the best Republican this side of Mike Huckabee when it comes to appealing to voters below the median, who will likely decide the election in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. ¶ 9:27 AM
I haven't, and likely won't, have the time to analyze the Maine caucus returns until well after something more au courant comes along to tickle our drosophila-size attention spans. But, I do have the time to conjecture wildly.
A quick perusal of the results by town showed exactly what I would expect. Southern reaches of the state, especially the Boston suburbs of York Beach, Kennebunkport, and the crunchy metropolis of Portland, went hard for Obama. These places have more culturally in common with Wellesley and Oak Bluffs than with Paris or Gray, which could just as soon be in Tennessee, and I say that as a compliment. FWIW, Paris went for Obama 6-5, Gray broke even at 8-8, and York broke hard at 32-17. Maybe these are eccentric data points, but they are real nonetheless, and caucuses are famed for skewed results compared to the general election, where voters do not spend hours in a room being hemmed and hawed by each side.
My belief remains that Obama faces a very steep hurdle connecting with lower- and middle-class whites, who seem far more interested in the dull to-do list Hillary unrolls on demand, than the soaring but nebulous sentiments offered by Obama. This in a way mirrors Obama's enduring popularity among many upper-tier Republicans, who sour rapidly on him as the blue-sky appeals turn into concrete policy recommendations. This is a bad omen for an Obama candidacy, which looks increasingly likely, as (and I repeat myself) McCain is the best Republican this side of Mike Huckabee when it comes to appealing to voters below the median, who will likely decide the election in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. ¶ 9:27 AM
